How eSports betting works

• Learn how a bookmaker works
• How to compare eSports odds & payouts
• Why payouts are the key to profit

How does a bookmaker work?

Bookmakers work out the probability – the chance – of popular events occurring, like the English Premier more obscure stuff like betting on Brexit or who’ll win eSports matches. They turn that probability into odds which punters can place eSports bets on, but crucially bookmakers offer slightly poorer odds than the real probability of either side winning.

Bookmakers work by offering slightly poorer eSports odds than the real probability of either side winning.

Say CS:GO Team A are playing CS:GO Team B. They have played 10 times recently, with Team A winning six times and losing four times.

Keeping it really simply and assuming conditions are the same, basic probability would suggest that Team A has a 60% chance of winning (6 / 10 * 100), while Team B has a 40% chance.

Bookmakers wants to make a profit so rather than offering odds that reflect the probability (based on the form) they exaggerate each team’s chances. So bookmaker odds for the matchup may suggest a 62% chance of Team A winning and 42% for Team B.

This is how that looks with Decimal odds (which most European bookmakers use).

Fair Assessment

• Team A
• 6 wins / 10 matches
• 60% Chance
• Decimal Odds of 1.66
• Team B
• 4 wins from 10 matches
• 40% Chance
• Decimal odds of 2.50

Bookmaker Assessment

• Team A
• 6.2 wins / 10 matches
• 62% Chance
• Decimal Odds of 1.61
• Team B
• 4.2 wins from 10 matches
• 42% Chance
• Decimal odds of 2.38

Now you might think ‘If I bet on Team A and they win I am still quids in!’ That is true, but because you aren’t getting paid out in true proportion to the riskiness of your bet, if you keep placing more bets over time the bookmaker’s edge will eventually mean that you will lose.

Imagine flipping a coin with a friend that is slightly biased towards heads. The coin would land on both sides, but heads would show up slightly more than chance, and if you kept flipping you would eventually lose your shirt.

The cost of placing a bet

That amount that the odds are tweaked – the edge the bookmaker has in their favour – is called the margin. That is the cost to the bettor of placing a bet.

If you go back to the example above the sum of the Fair Assessment of the chances of Team A and Team B is 100%. But in the Bookmaker Assessment the total chances are 104%. The margin is therefore 4% in the bookmaker’s favour. So long as they take bets on both sides in proportion to the odds they will make 4% of the total sum of bets.

This should ring some bells with anyone who has used skin-betting sites because they are doing a very similar thing by a change a commission on bets.

Why payouts are so crucial

When you look at the eSports odds comparison tables on Beo we display the Payout for each matchup, rather than Margin. The higher the Payout the better the value. Margin shows the odds from the bookmaker perspective – what they take – whereas the Payout is what you, the bettor, gets. Payout is the inverse of Margin, so a 4% margin means a 96% payout.

What this means is that if you bet £100 across both sides, in proportion to the odds, (not advisable) you would only get £96 back. The Payout is the only way to compare eSports odds, so you should pay close attention to it when you choose where to place your eSports bets. It isn’t the only consideration, but it is one of the most important.

esportsbettingbuddy

author & editor

In-depth, informed looks at stories that impact the esports betting industry + analysis of trends surrounding betting on esports.