Feel like betting on CS:GO and other eSports? Do it with esportsbettingbuddy – covering most major pool betting sites, where Players wager against each other and Winners take it all!
Bet on the most popular eSports leagues. Bet on CSGO, League of Legends, StarCraft 2, Hearthstone.
The esports industry is one of the fastest growing segments in sports and entertainment, on pace to generate as much as $5 billion in revenue by 2020 — and advertisers obviously want in. One of the primary reasons that esports has such tremendous growth potential? The involvement of women. Brands need to be aware that the industry is seeing more and more women enter not only as spectators, but also as players, infrastructure builders, game designers, and more.
Women create, play and compete
This growth of women in gaming can be seen across multiple areas, including game developers, collegiate players, professional athletes, and mobile competitors. The International Game Developers Association found a significant jump in the number of female game developers between 2009 and 2014, with the amount doubling to 22 percent.
Earlier this year, Stephens College in Columbia, Missouri became the first all-female school to announce a varsity esports program supported by scholarships. More women than ever are moving to the professional level, such as the all-female Counter Strike: Global Offensive Team Dignitas squad. I’ve also directly witnessed the rise of women in esports. Today, over half of the 12 million registered gamers on the Skillz platform are women.
Women engage and purchase more
A study this year also found that women lead men in mobile gaming engagement, as they’re more likely to register and spend within mobile games. This makes women the ideal, preferred consumers in what is now the largest digital gaming market in the world. Women also now comprise about a third of the U.S. esports audience, and are projected to account for half of viewer growth over the next 12 months. And according to one study, more women than men self-identify as being involved in esports.
Clearly, data shows that women are a significant demographic in gaming and esports. For these industries to continue to thrive in the future, female participation will be crucial. So, the fact that women have to prove themselves worthy to be part of the gaming world is not only contradictory — it’s a detriment to business.
Yet women are disregarded
As a woman who has been a gamer her entire life, and as the head of engineering at the world’s leading mobile esports provider, one thing about the gaming industry has been an ongoing disappointment to me: the industry’s systematic disregard and discrimination toward the female demographic that has proven essential for its continued growth and success.
Sadly gaming and esports are widely considered “male industries,” a characterization that disenfranchises the women in the field, as well as the millions of female esports fans around the world. Perhaps the most serious consequence of this characterization is that it permits, and sometimes even encourages, the mistreatment of women in gaming. It’s something we’ve seen time and again from online communities, live-stream viewers, and even professional esports athletes.
Women face adversity
Unfortunately, examples of this behavior are continuing to emerge. The infamous #GamerGate in 2014 saw anonymous online attackers threaten developer Zoe Quinn and many others with violent and sexist threats. This had a chilling effect on women and other marginalized people across the entire game industry.
Meanwhile, one study last year found that comments on female Twitch channels are characterized by objectification from viewers about the streamer’s physical appearance and relationships, while male Twitch channels mostly see comments about the game being played. Earlier this year, two professional Overwatch athletes solicited female esports fans – some of them underage – for photos and private meetups.
This attitude toward female gamers isn’t just an abstract concept happening to a select few. I have also noticed a difference in how I’m treated by fellow competitors when I’m playing online. A lot of games provide few, if any, female avatars, so sometimes I just use my favorite avatar regardless of how it relates to my gender. Due to this, fellow players usually just assume I’m male, and are surprised if they discover that I’m actually a woman. It just makes me wonder why my gender comes up at all. We’re playing a game: gender shouldn’t affect that.
But it does. Inappropriate behavior, sexually-charged comments, and hostility regarding the perceived inferiority of women’s gaming skills work to push women toward the margins of gaming. However, this marginalization seems rather counterintuitive in an industry that’s increasingly thriving, due in large part to female consumers.
Women need support
As the VP of Engineering at Skillz, I feel extremely fortunate to be developing a product that offers everyone, regardless of gender, background, or skill level, a chance to compete in mobile esports. However, a broader shift in thinking is needed across the entire industry.
If you’re still not convinced by the data, take it from someone who’s witnessing the democratization of esports and the rise of female gamers firsthand. For the esports industry to reach its true potential, the continued participation of women will be critical. Isn’t it about time for the industry to truly support and encourage women, whose involvement will make or break modern esports?
Miriam Aguirre is the Vice President of Engineering at Skillz, the worldwide leader in mobile eSports, which was recently named the fastest-growing company in America by Inc. Magazine.
How should a bookmaker offer esports markets? What are the challenges involved in doing so? From tussles with the game developers who own the IP, to issues with data, stream delays, the diverse and complex communities that exist under the umbrella term of esports, to the opportunity for casinos, self-titled ‘esports experts’, skins betting, ambassadors and more, it’s fair to say it’s something of a minefield.
It’s these issues and more that’ll be discussed at the BETTING ON ESPORTS CONFERENCE 2017.
With 22+ high profile speakers, 120+ attendees and an esports betting focused exhibition zone, BoE will play a huge part of the wider Betting on Sports Conference in September 12-15.
Speakers include Marco Blume of Pinnacle, Rahul Sood CEO of Unikrn, Alex Igelman CEO of Millennial Esports, Blaine Graboyes CEO of GameCo, James Dean MD of ESL UK, Ellie Reed of M&C Saatchi, Kevin Carpenter of ESIC, Dom Sacco of the British Esports Association and more.
All tickets for Betting on Esports include full access to Betting on Sports (including the networking parties each evening). This year’s #boscon2017 will see over 1,000 attendees, 150 speakers, and 55 exhibitors.
There’ll be extensive networking opportunities, six esports focused knowledge sharing sessions, a betting on esports exhibition zone, parties each evening and a tournament during the day too. Secure your tickets today! http://sbcevents.co.uk/betting-on-esports-2017/
Debut contribution to Betting Resources from Pinnacle's Director of Trading
Detailed comparison of Arbitrage vs Value Betting
Examination of the crucial role of bankroll management & variance
As Pinnacle’s Director of Trading my job is to manage risk, and the same should be true for every bettor out there trying to make money. I love reading about how bettors approach risk and bankroll management and was inspired to make my first contribution to Betting Resources to expose some misconceptions around one of most widely debated and often misconceived topics - Arbitrage vs. Value Betting.
One of Pinnacle’s stand-out policies is that we welcome Arbitrage. Arbitrage betting is the search for risk-free profit via price differential, which can commonly occur because a bookmaker offers odds that don’t truly reflect the underlying probability.
Given the prospect of risk-free profit the beginner’s guide to arbitrage is, unsurprisingly, one of the most popular articles in Betting Resources’ extensive archive of betting strategy. The promise of guaranteed profit without any risk exposure runs counter to the argument that when something sounds too good to be true, well...you know the rest.
The truth is, Arbitrage is a sound betting strategy1 . In fact, it’s the basis of much of the profit generation within the trillion dollar world of investment banking. Most bookmakers dislike Arbers because they don’t fit their target audience, but my trading model is focused solely on volume - which includes Arbitrage. I don’t mind what the intention behind a bet is so long as bettors follow our rules.
Arbitrage betting has evolved to the point of having its own community and strains of thought around how to profit from the circumstances that lead to price differential. Our Arbitrage explanation offers several potential reasons for arbs occurring but by far the most common is simply because bookmakers make different assessments of the underlying probability for a given event - they offer over-generous odds.
Once that situation occurs to complete an Arb, a bettor needs to find the most accurate assessment of that market and bet both sides with proportional stakes. Pinnacle is one of the sharpest bookmakers around, so we will often serve that purpose for Arbers2. The suggestion I often read is that if the odds are wrong, why not just take a naked arbitrage position and bet on the value? This rather simplistic assessment ignores key issues around risk and bankroll management, and is what inspired me to write this article.
To build an answer to this key question let’s start with an example of an Arbitrage opportunity:
Option
Odds
Bookmaker
Barcelona to win UCL (Yes)
2.120
Pinnacle
Barcelona to win UCL (No)
1.950
Mystery Bookmaker
With proportionate staking, placing a bet on Yes - Barcelona to win the UCL - at 2.120 AND the No with Mystery Bookmaker will guarantee you a profit regardless of the outcome.
Option
Odds
Risk
Possible Profit
Net Profit
Yes
2.120
95.82
203.134
3.14
No
1.95
104.18
203.15
3.15
Value Betting vs. Arbitrage
There is a logic that says that Arbitrage simply exposes a Value Betting opportunity at Mystery Bookmaker. Instead of hedging the wager at Mystery Bookmaker on the No with a wager on the Yes at Pinnacle, Value Betting suggests that the Pinnacle line is a better reflection of the true probability of Barcelona winning the Champions league - meaning the Pinnacle price is correct - and the price of Mystery Bookmaker is incorrect. They have got the odds wrong so why not skip the Arb and simply take advantage of the inaccuracy that offers ‘value’.
Bookmaker
Option
Odds
Implied Probability
Pinnacle
Yes
2.120
0.472
Pinnacle
No
1.810
0.553
Mystery Bookmaker
Yes
1.910
0.524
Mystery Bookmaker
No
1.950
0.513
If we accept the assumption that Pinnacle has the correct price then the fair chance of Barcelona not winning the UCL - the No bet - is 53.9% (this removes the bookmaker margin shown in the table above). This is a 4.4% difference from Mystery Bookmaker’s assessment of 49.5 (53.9-49.5). Betting the No option with Mystery Bookmaker should therefore yield a return equal to the fair probability MINUS the wagered probability. 1.95 translates into 51.3%. Thus the expected return should be (53.9-51.3)=2.6%, which is better than most bank accounts so seems attractive, but is this the whole picture?
Bookmaker
Option
Odds
Fair Probability
Pinnacle
Yes
2.120
0.461
Pinnacle
No
1.810
0.539
Mystery Bookmaker
Yes
1.910
0.505
Mystery Bookmaker
No
1.950
0.495
Value Betting and variance
Betting with odds of 1.95 and implied probability with a margin of 51.3% literally means that you have to win 51.3% of your bets to break-even (were it a fair coin toss you would just need to win half or 50% of bets to neither win nor lose). We cannot, however, simply use a single event to test the efficacy of the Value Betting approach; we need to look a significant sample size.
Using a sample size of 1,000 bets at odds of 1.95 this equates to 512.8 bets won (see the graph below). What this tells us is that the chances of 512 or less successful bets with the given edge is 18.6% - based on the Binomial distribution. The chances of winning 450 or less events with the given edge is 4.91%.
Expected growth
Value Betting’s growth curve - what happens to profitability with more bets over time - largely depends on the underlying fair probability as the edge - as illustrated above in our Barcelona example - is the important factor in determining the appropriate stake via a Kelly approach (you can learn about Kelly Criterion here).
Arbitrage betting has a steady growth pattern as all positions are fully hedged; there is no variance as there is no risk because all your bases are covered. Assuming a starting bankroll of 1,000 units and applying a Kelly Criterion based betting strategy with a 2.66% edge over 1,000 separate Monte Carlo Simulations, each with 1,000 wagers. The graph below illustrates what we should expect to happen.
The mean of 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations generated a profit of ~500 units. The top 10% generated a profit of ~3,000 units - this is our best case scenario - and the bottom 10% generated a loss of ~500 units. In over 1,000 wagers, Arbitrage betting performed as good as the top 10% of the Monte Carlo simulations and as I have reiterated throughout this article, it has no variance.
The reason that Value Betting performs this way compared to Arbitrage betting has to do with Bankroll management which must be proportionate to the underlying risk. If you aren’t betting this way, read this staking method article or you’ll quickly destroy your bankroll. With Arbitrage betting, this issue evaporates. A higher percentage of the bankroll can be wagered as there is no risk attached.
The example used above with ~200 units wagered, was chosen deliberately to be realistic for an average bettor starting with 1,000 units. Given the point already made about the relationship between risk and bankroll it is clear that in order to be viable, Value Betting strategies can’t risk 20% of their starting bankroll on a 2.66% edge wager; the risk of ruin would be too great.
Sure, with an unlimited bankroll and betting limits Value Betting trumps Arbitrage but in the real world Kelly Criterion is the sensible strategy for bankroll growth, and for those in between a mixed trading strategy is recommended to ensure a proper bankroll growth.
1 Theoretical Arbitrage is risk-free from a mathematical perspective, but this doesn’t account for externalities. These include whether Mystery Bookmaker is willing to accept your bet (they may profile Arbers), whether they feel their odds were so ‘wrong’ that the don’t honour them, or whether you can bet at the required proportional stake at Mystery Bookmaker relative to the stake at Pinnacle, where limits aren’t an issue.
2 While Pinnacle odds are certainly very accurate - independently judged - they won’t always necessarily reflect the true underlying probability of a given event. Many factors will influence their accuracy.
I've been known to have the occasional flutter on a sports ball match or an equine quickness test. But while I was perusing some of the major betting sites recently, looking for an intriguing offer or some half-decent odds, I stumbled upon something curious. The world of eSports has quietly worked its way into betting markets. But is either industry ready for the coming together of slapping cash down in hope of complete strangers outperforming rivals and these little things called video games?
William Hill is amongst the first bookies to offer odds on eSports events. "[The idea] was actually from a couple of young guys who work down in the Darwin office, in Australia," Rupert Adams, International PR Manager at the company, tells me. Two 20-year-olds, gamers in their spare time, got in contact with compilers at William Hill's head office in Leeds—compilers are responsible for deciding whether a new market is going to be created for people to bet on. The two Australians go to gaming tournaments every now and then, and wondered why there wasn't a way to combine work with pleasure. Would it be possible to bet on video games?
ADVERTISEMENT
That was a few months ago—and today, you most certainly can bet on eSports. Which makes perfect sense, as the audience is there. According to SuperData Research, there are over 134 million eSports viewers worldwide as of May 2015. The market in Europe is worth $72 million, North America $143 million, and Asia is the biggest at $374 million. A lot of people are watching, and a growing number of sponsors are pumping money into the eSports industry. So it was never a matter of if eSports would be getting betting markets, merely a matter of when.
We are still in the early days though. William Hill is neither losing nor gaining money from its eSports markets right now. Rupert tells me this is always the way for new markets at the start. "If you had told me ten years ago that people would be betting on the winner of The X Factor, I wouldn't have believed you. But now we make £1 million [$1.5 million] from the final."
I was interested to learn about which new markets get picked up—after all, it's not every day that an entirely new sport comes around. "Other than one-off markets, like whether we'll have a white Christmas, or who's going to win The X Factor, it just doesn't happen often," Rupert says. "I guess the last big one I can remember was for WWE Wrestling." (Which seems odd to me, considering there are a group of people who actually know the outcomes of those bouts ahead of time.) Betting on eSports is certain to increase over time, but whether it will ever get as big as gambling on football games and horse races remains to be seen.
ADVERTISEMENT
I decided it was time to speak to someone who had experience from the other side of things. Stephen "Snoopeh" Ellis is a former professional League of Legends player. As the jungler for Counter Logic Gaming Europe, he played in the Season 2 World Championships against some of the world's best. With his playing days behind him, he is now Vice President of Business Development at Unikrn, a company dedicated to offering eSports betting.
"We aim to provide a safe, legal, and responsible environment for people to bet on eSports," he tells me. "During my tenure as a professional gamer I was always passionate about the business aspects of eSports, and when making the transition into the next chapter of my career I had the opportunity to visit Unikrn's founders Rahul Sood and Karl Flores, as well as the rest of the team in Seattle, and knew these were the guys I wanted to work with."
"Also, there is a wealth of evidence out there which points to betting increasing engagement and viewership in sports," he continues. "There are some examples already happening in eSports, despite there not being a platform dedicated to it like ours. I see Unikrn as one of the catalysts in helping eSports grow and bridge the gap between the mainstream and hardcore audiences."
I ask if he sees the mainstream sites, such as Bet365 and William Hill, as competition for Unikrn, or whether he thinks gamers were more likely to turn to his company, since it's a dedicated eSports platform.
"The difference between those mentioned and ourselves is that we are completely vertically integrated in eSports. We are also hardcore gamers—you'll often find our CEO squeezing in as many games of League of Legends as he can. We seek to bring the level of legality and safety that these mainstream sites bring, at the same time as being gamer focused and re-investing into the eSports scene."
With the eSports industry growing all the time, I've always thought that betting was an obvious step in its development into the mainstream, and Stephen agrees. "Betting is one of the next logical steps in eSports. There is an emerging body of research in traditional sports, which if you've ever bet on traditional sports, you will know about. For one thing, betting increases engagement. People are more likely to watch to the end of games, people are more likely to watch less-significant games, and this is already very evident at some eSports tournaments." I know all about that, having added an extra dimension to Argentina against Iran in the 2014 World Cup by putting a little of my own money on the line.
Gameplay from 'League of Legends'
I wanted to get Stephen's views on whether the eSports industry was ready for betting, both in terms of it still being in its infancy, and the fact that many eSports fans are not of legal age for gambling.
ADVERTISEMENT
"It's a good question, and we should all be wary of younger people betting in any sport, never mind eSports. That is why we've partnered with TabCorp, which is one of the largest wagering firms in the world and, for the past nine out of ten years, has been recognized as the most responsible wagering platform in the world. They have strict verification processes, so betting goes through us on the front end but is completely checked by them on the back end."
After leaving the professional gaming scene and moving over to Unikrn, Stephen posted an AMA on Reddit, answering questions and concerns that his fans had. In it, he spoke about a strong desire to combat match fixing, something that has been a massive problem in the past. I asked him to elaborate.
"Competitive integrity is something I am very aware of as a former professional gamer, and the team here at Unikrn is making that a top priority. Not only will we blacklist anyone who is directly or indirectly involved in the competition—that's coaches, analysts, players, owners, league organizers, admins, whoever—but we are also working on a comprehensive competitive integrity certificate which leagues and tournaments that we offer betting on must adhere to, or else we will not offering betting on their tournaments."
Unikrn has measures in place to prevent any sort of foul play. "We're also monitored by LuxBet, and they have decades of experience to catch irregular betting patterns that we can flag on our system. There are various other checks and balances we will be implementing, but I can assure you we are taking competitive integrity very seriously."
Having spent so many years in the eSports industry before getting into the betting side of things, Stephen believes that gambling won't have a negative impact. "I believe that betting will create more engagement, not only for the hardcore gamer but also for the casual. I love eSports—it's given me so much, and I wouldn't have joined Unikrn if I thought its practices were detrimental to the health and prosperity of the scene."
It appears, then, that the eSports industry and the gambling industry are ready for each other. Some may scoff now, but in ten years it's pretty likely that we'll be just as ready to bet on who's going to win the 2025 League of Legends World Championships as we are on whether we'll be getting snow on Christmas Day. And if the right measures are in place to protect young people and prevent cheating, then I, for one, don't see a problem with it. Now, to find the Dotaequivalent of the Honduran national soccer team and make their matches all the more exciting.
